Moscow’s threat to Finland reveals a deep fear in the Kremlin

Moscow is threatening Finland with consequences if its neighbor joins NATO. Just like Sweden, the Finns were neutral themselves during the Cold War. But the current threat is crumbling old certainties.

So far, Finland and Sweden have not belonged to NATO, they officially describe themselves as “non-aligned”. But that could change soon. Because after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the mood in both countries could slowly start to change.

Moscow is watching the development with suspicion. The threat to a short report on a parliamentary debate in Helsinki shows how nervous the Kremlin is. Prime Minister Sanna Marin had said they were “ready to apply for NATO membership if the issue of national security becomes acute”.

Referring to the report, Russia’s Foreign Ministry tweeted that Finland’s entry into NATO “would have serious military and political consequences.” A threat that Finland must take seriously: the country has a 1,300-kilometer border with Russia. In addition, Russia is one of the most important importers of Finnish goods, while Finland gets 60 percent of its energy from the neighboring country.

In fact, from the Russian point of view, the non-alignment of both states is almost indispensable. “We believe that the policy of neutrality of these two countries is one of the most important contributions to the common European architecture and to ensuring stability in Europe,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said recently. From Moscow’s point of view, both countries form a buffer to NATO.

After Russia began its invasion of Ukraine last Thursday, Marin asserted: “We are currently not holding any talks about possible NATO membership. Such a decision requires broad political and public support.” On the same day, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson declared: “Now is not the right time to shake things up.”

In fact, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there has been no intensified debate in the two countries about joining NATO. Rather, politicians and the public in Sweden and Finland discussed the question of whether the two countries should send defensive weapons to a country at war for the first time. The taboo fell on Monday: Stockholm is now offering anti-tank weapons to Kyiv, while Finland is offering helmets and bulletproof vests.

According to a survey, a majority of Finns voted in favor of joining NATO for the first time. This was reported by Finnish radio on Monday. Accordingly, 53 percent of those surveyed support submitting an application for NATO membership. In addition, a citizens’ survey reached a critical number of signatures: Parliament now has to deal with the petition calling for a referendum on accession.

The approval ratings for NATO are even more favorable in Sweden, where the mood towards the alliance is traditionally better than in Finland.

Now, of all things, the parliamentary elections next September could lead to Sweden joining NATO. Should Moscow indeed subjugate Ukraine completely, membership is likely to become a major campaign issue – unless the ruling Social Democrats change their position by then. In December, the Social Democratic Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said his country would not join NATO, “not now or later”.

In contrast, the bourgeois opposition has been demanding accession for years – and they could hit a mood in the country with it. “I am absolutely certain that within five years Sweden will be part of NATO,” conservative opposition leader Ulf Kristersson said in early February. And if Stockholm really decides to join NATO, Finland is likely to follow suit. Both countries have been closely coordinating their security policies for years.

Along with four other countries, they are also particularly close NATO partners (“enhanced opportunity partners”). Both countries provide soldiers for NATO operations, they share secret service information and train with the alliance. From the point of view of Sweden and Finland, the Nordic security partnership with Denmark and Norway is just as important.

In 2018, both countries signed a declaration of intent with the USA on close relations on defense issues. Stockholm bought American Patriot missiles and Helsinki F-35 bombers.